Countdown to carbon cut date . . .
  from: Offshore Engineer
  Wednesday, May 07, 2008

Ambitious strategies designed to create a 20% reduction in Europe’s carbon emissions by the year 2020 – far from an assured goal – will be more than offset by projected emissions from China and India, the chief economist for the International Energy Agency said yesterday.

Fatih Birol of the Paris-based group told an OTC audience that the entire savings from 15 years of reduced European emissions would represent 70% of just one year’s carbon output of China and India if the two countries continue to grow at current rates without curbing emissions.

The results could be dire: at the present rate of CO2 emissions worldwide, the earth’s temperature could rise by 6°C before the century’s midpoint, Birol said.

‘This will have dramatic implications for our planet,’ he said. ‘We have to make a lot of effort to get China and India on board.’

The task will be difficult, given the two countries’ booming economies and populations. It is unfair for developed nations to ask emerging nations to eschew cheaper coal-fired power in favor of alternative energy, he said, when some 1.4 billion people worldwide will still be living without access to electricity in the year 2030.

Birol’s remarks at a panel discussion on the issues surrounding the need to balance energy security and environmental concerns illustrated just how difficult it will be for policy makers, scientists and industry to strike that balance. Despite increasing interest among developed nations, including the US, in alternative sources of energy, few of the panelists expected a dramatic reduction in the world’s reliance on fossil fuels in coming years.

Some speakers maintained that hydrocarbons could continue to be used without a major increase in greenhouse gas emissions as new technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) for coal-fired electricity generators come on line.

‘We do see technical and business innovation’ adapting to the trend of reduced emissions, said Amy Myers Jaffe, associate director of the energy program at Rice University.

Bob McLeod, Northwest Territories, Canada minister of human resources, tourism & energy initiatives, offered what he called a ‘northerner’s perspective’ on the issues. The province is both a producer of hydrocarbons and, with its northern reaches stretching well into the Arctic, a visible testament to the effects of climate change. ‘Our seasons are changing,’ he said. ‘This summer, the Arctic ice pack is at its lowest level in history.’

McLeod said reserves in the MacKenzie River Delta and the Beaufort Sea could provide as much as 8bcf/d of Arctic gas to the continent when combined with resources in Alaska. A proposed $16.2 billion pipeline from MacKenzie Bay would provide ‘a real and viable alternative to help meet the continent’s energy demands,’ he said.

US Minerals Management Service director Randall Luthi called for further hydrocarbon exploration and production in the Gulf of Mexico and Alaska to help shore up the nation’s energy security, while exploring wind, wave and current energy applications on the areas of the outer continental shelf now off-limits to oil and gas drilling.

‘I believe the US domestic energy production must increase from all sources,’ Luthi said. ‘We do have to look at all possibilities.’

To view and read the entire Wednesday OTC08 Show Daily, please click here.