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Pre-Labor Day gas prices lowest in 11 years

Retail price for regular gasoline on 31 August 2015, is the lowest price for the Monday before Labor day seen since 2004, with potential decline forecast during 4Q 2015
Pre-Labor Day gas prices lowest in 11 years

The US average retail price for regular gasoline was US$2.51/gal on 31 August 2015, the lowest price for the Monday before Labor Day since 2004, and $0.95/gal lower than the same time last year. Declines in crude oil prices are the main driver behind falling US gasoline prices. Lower crude oil prices reflect concerns about economic growth in emerging markets, expectations of higher oil exports from Iran, and continuing actual and expected growth in global crude oil inventories.

The US average retail gasoline price increased $0.47/gal since the last week of January, when it was $2.04/gal, driven by rising crude oil prices earlier in the year, strong demand during the summer driving season, and unplanned refinery outages on the west coast and more recently in the Midwest.

On a regional basis, average gasoline prices range from $3.16/gal on the west coast to $2.20/gal in the gulf coast. Gasoline on the west coast, particularly in California, continues to be in short supply, and California continues to have the highest price among states surveyed in US Energy Information Administration's (EIA) weekly Gasoline and Diesel Fuel Update. As of 31 August 31, gasoline prices averaged $3.34/gal in California and $3.55/gal and $3.24/gal in Los Angeles and San Francisco, respectively.

Although gasoline prices in the Midwest have fallen in recent weeks, an unplanned outage of the BP refinery in Whiting, Indiana, previously caused retail prices in that region to increase $0.60/gal on 17 August. Gasoline prices in Chicago and Cleveland now average $2.95/gal and $2.31/gal, respectively.

The gulf coast region, where much of the nation's petroleum refinery capacity is located, continues to have some of the lowest-priced gasoline in the nation, averaging $2.20/gal for the region and $2.21/gal in Houston.

As fall approaches and US driving levels are lower, reduced gasoline demand, shifts to less costly winter specifications for gasoline, and reduced crude oil purchases by refineries undergoing seasonal maintenance have the potential to put downward pressure on crude oil and gasoline prices. In the August Short-Term Energy Outlook, EIA forecasts US regular gasoline prices to decline to an average of $2.11/gal during 4Q 2015, and projects an annual average retail gasoline price of $2.41/gal for 2015.

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